Grave mistake and blunder

Turkish prime-minister was too slow to condemn Ghaddafi, and in fact appeared to defend him. I find this outrageous. I think this is one of the first, but most significant strategic blunders by AKP. The West was caught red-handed but fixed their act together, but Turkish goverment should have known better and used Islamic sensibilities to condemn tyrannical nature of the regimes it had to deal with.

Some old-lived anti-Western cliches have been used for too long - now it is time to retire hem and come out not as victim and and a voice of downthrodden, but as a trendsetter and a role model for future societies of the Middle East. There can be no place for such role model in the new order, if it betrays Libyan people in their hour of need either in defense of billions invested into Ghaddafi regime or in some misguided search for Islamic solidarity.

We must move on quickly towards Turkey adopting pro-active chance suggesting physically taking out Ghaddafi and his cronies and providing rebels with ammunition. It should beat Western countries to their own game and go one step further. Turkey must appear to be as stroung on Libya as it is on Israel, there is no time to wide.

Are we building our future together?

The article from Today's Zaman exposes the shallowness of claims of "One Nation - Two States" policy in Azerbaijan-Turkish relations. Azerbaijan's government is simply not interested in developing deeper, more rational strategic partnership which is based on future and does not dwell on the past. Azerbaijan is building its future balancing on the difference between Russia, Europe and Turkey and this is not real policy. Turkophiles in Azerbaijan - see beyond the hype.


There are linguistic, religious and ethnic ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan also has the same ties with Asian countries. Azerbaijan has coexisted with people in Central Asia with Turkish roots for nearly 200 years (through the Russian Tsardom and the Soviet Union) under the same state, sharing the same cultural, political and economic life. Despite sharing so many commonalities, Azerbaijani people have a more deeply rooted sympathy and love toward Turkey than toward the Turkic peoples of Central Asia. What is the reason for Turkey's deep love toward Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan's deep love toward Turkey?

Intellectual movement between the two countries in the 19th and 20th centuries, the interaction of intellectual thoughts, the quest for strategic partnership in the early 20th century, the liberation of Azerbaijan and Baku by the Ottoman state in 1918, Azerbaijan's financial support and volunteer military support for Turkey's War of Independence in 1921, Turkey's safe haven for Azerbaijani opponents during Russian Tsardom and the Soviet Union and Turkey's quick and free political, economic, militaristic and cultural consultation with Azerbaijan after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 are representative of the events that have facilitated the affection between the two countries.

However, a common strategic future has not been built on this deep love between the two countries in the 21st century. Taking each other for granted, the countries haven't felt the need to build a future together. Activities between businessmen and high-level political meetings between presidents, prime ministers and state ministers were deemed sufficient as long as they adhered to the “one nation, two states” slogan. Considering the deep love between the two countries, why haven't relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan reached the level of relations between Turkey and Georgia or between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation or even between Azerbaijan and Germany? Or rather, the more important question is: How can the two countries develop their relations to that level? There are no visa requirements between Turkey and Georgia for those staying under three months. There are negotiations under way to allow citizens to travel between Turkey and Georgia with just an identification card. Visa exemptions have boosted travel between the two countries and trade along the border. Turkey signed its second-most comprehensive free trade agreement, which includes agricultural products as well, with Georgia, after Bosnia-Herzegovina.

While Turkey has removed visa requirements for Azerbaijani citizens, Azerbaijan has not and would even like to adopt a stricter visa policy.

How to deal with Iran

Iran as a state always confounds observation - a modern state, religious theocracy with popular yet limited democracy; a state of multiple identities or no identity at all. Islamic Republic of Iran. It is Islamic yet Republic, and Aryan and Persian speaking too. Ultimately it is a state and society which has always frustrated others. Ottomans first, then Russians, French and British - and now the West in general - they were all frustrated in their plans to subjugate the peoples of Persia. Yet Iran, soaked in Shia religion and Persian culture is not a monolith; the gaps between many Irans show well during the times like these.

Old Persian strenght lay in ability to frustrate plans, complicate, scheme and plot against others. Persian state's survival against odds and bravery is admirable. I will not mention democracy, Israeli and Western fears of today, for this is irrelevant to this profoundly un-Europoean state.

Right now, as Aryanist and Shia clergy hybrid Iran stands against a great aspiration of Eurasian political and economic continuum. This aspiration is for Turkish domination in Eurasian space in a distant yet achievable future; it is not a dream of Pan-Turkist nutter. The duel between Russia, Turkey and the West will need to be mediated by peoples of Iran and ultimately will decide the fate of all Muslims.

Iran is a dual state of Turkish and Persian identity. Turkish nation of Iran are not a minority like Kurds or Lurs but coeval founder of Iranian selfhood. Evolution of political and religious thinking in this direction will accomodate varios strands of Iranian society and integrate it back into Turkic-Persian Muslim cultural space. Seljuk Empire of Modernity could be born.

It also needs to be tanglibly demonstrated that Shia religion and Iranian state are not identical twins, as is shown now within the political system of Iran. The falsehood of clerical order build after the Revolution is a mockery of all Shia aspirations to free will, since the times of Imams. Once both Turkish and Persian strands of Islam are integrated, the divide of Islam, which Arabs are unable to cure will be healed over.

Iran needs to end its isolation from the Muslim and Western world and Turks of Iran are instrument to achieve it. Without necessary destruction of geographical space of Iran, the meaning of "Iran" may be profoundly changed.

Border controls

It is not clear, even to ex-president of Turkey what will the country gain from opening borders with Armenia. It is clear what US, Europe and Armenia gain, but Turkish politics of late are either very clever, one-step-ahead-of-everybody-else type politics or just plain inconsistent. I do not believe that prime minister Erdogan can be duped so easily so I prefer to think of some devilish game, which Turkey - basking in light of Obama visit- started playing.

The US tries to strengthen its positions in Caucasus at the respect of Russia, for greater geopolitical reasons (there are of course sentimental reasons for public too). Improving Turkish-Armenian relationship too early, seriously damages the positions of official Baku, because the solution of the conflict will be postponed indefinetily; this is equal to loss of Qarabagh. Our position is very simple and we want this to be taken into account.

Turkey will gain nothing from improving relations with Armenia unless the occupied territories are released. Turkey will not ever be admitted into EU, nor will it be relieved from accusations of genocide. America needs Turkey for her special position in the Muslim world and Eurasia. America and Europe need Turkey more than ever, although they hate to admit it. Turkey agrees to proceed , but it should proceed warily, knowing that at some point their path diverge. Path to Turkish greatness lies elsewhere.

There is no better choice but to stick to your guns and expand its influence to the East. There is an earnest ally there. Azerbaijan will stand by Turkey, as her faithful ally, if she projects power to the East towards Turkey's proper place as great Eurasian power. Azerbaijan has less to gain if Turkey bows to European wishes or if she becomes Middle Eastern.

Shame, but I will get over it

I am not a war monger, nor an idiot. The politics always takes an upper hand to emotions. The reconciliation with Armenia is necessary, but painful - for memories of war still linger - no one wants a repeat of 1990s carnage. But greedy frontline still claims victims every day of the year. We are still at war, even if we chose to forget.

Turkey as a nation is still our greates ally, even if her politicians betray us from time to time . Our eternal brotherhood will never be broken, by Russia, political Islamists or Armenians. We are part of one nation and every Turk is just as much an Azeri as Baku is brother to Istanbul.

Turkey, beware!

I will be really shocked if Turkish President Abdullah Gul visits Armenia., reacting to Armenian invitation. This is a bold step, which will not be taken lightly by Azerbaijan - not that we can do much about that. My opinion is that today is a very bad time for such a visit - a time when we have a real chance to prize Armenia away from her Russian masters, return our territories, and end the "genocide" claims for good. Turkey has to play key and decisive role in the Caucasus conflicts, by coming out strongly as a protector of all Caucasian nations, on the conditions that they drop their claims and venomous hate.

The AKP leaders and their Islamist cronies - which do not represent majority of Turkish population - are playing a dangerous game with Russia. Instead of cozying up to their biggest trade partner, Turkey has to realize that her biggest role in this region is to push Russia out of Caucasus and Central Asia once and for all. It is not a natural role of US State Department, disinterested in Muslim lives to push this agenda. Muslim Turkey has to take much bigger stake in her ethnic and religious kin which suffered under Russia for much too long.

The only right visit to Armenia should happen when Russian military bases leave her soil, when Azerbaijan territories are returned and Karabakh status is agreed upon to satisfaction of both parties. A visit before that is nothing but an exercise in opportunistic politics. Turkey will never be pro-russian and Armenian-friendly and we all know it.

The Right Decision

After a hot summer with lots of worries the verdict of the Constitutional Court seems to relieve Turkey from further anxiety, at least for this year . I do not know if it a sign of a weakened Kemalist establishment or of a wise compromise of the shadow actors in Turkish politics, inside The Deep State. I am quite confident that allowing some breathing space for Turkish democracy will be good for us. The balance has been struck - and even without the EU membership carrot in sight - the Court acted wisely.

Yet in in this decision there is a stern warning to AKP not to act in its own accord and respect wishes of the Other Turkey. Many people are not just concerned with economic prosperity, they are prickly about their lifestyles, their drinks and beach parties and pre-marital sex. Their wishes have to be respected by their more conservative brothers and sisters. After all, they all belong to a great nation of Turkey. The only cure for Turkey to maintain its social cohesion is uphold the rule of Law and nationalist agenda.

Key parts of the Turkish Constitution at the heart of the case against the AK party included the preamble, which states:

In line with the concept of nationalism and the reforms and principles introduced by the founder of the Republic of Turkey, Atatürk, the immortal leader and the unrivalled hero, this Constitution, which affirms the eternal existence of the Turkish nation and motherland and the indivisible unity of the Turkish state, embodies . . .

The recognition that no protection shall be accorded to an activity contrary to Turkish national interests, the principle of the indivisibility of the existence of Turkey with its state and territory, Turkish historical and moral values or the nationalism, principles, reforms and modernism of Atatürk and that, as required by the principle of secularism, there shall be no interference whatsoever by sacred religious feelings in state affairs and politics . . .

Strange Case of Fethullah Gulen

The most loathed and at the same time loved figure in Turkey is not actually the prime-minister Erdogan at all, but the famous Islamist preacher Fethullah Gulen.

Praised by his followers as a representative of a modern and peaceful Islam and bedevilled by his critics as a fundamentalist bent on destroying Turkey’s secular republic, the preacher Fethullah Gulen, one of the country’s most controversial figures, may be about to return to his home-country after years in exile in the United States.The way for Gulen’s return was opened by Turkey’s court of appeals, which cleared him of accusations of Islamic fundamentalism and terrorism last week after a prolonged legal battle that went on for several years. Gulen is a darling of the West and at the same time the most hated figure of the Turkish nationalist right.

Kemalists, who see themselves as guardians of the secular values of Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, view Mr Gulen as an ardent Islamic fundamentalist.

Gulen founded hundreds of secular schools in Turkey as well as in South and Central Asia - there are very many in Azerbaijan. Being quazi-secular –called “ Nurcu” schools – these schools nevertheless teach a “moral” curriculum, and their educational standards – at least in Azerbaijan – are much higher than average corruption-ridden state schools .

Mr Gulen is also known as a representative of a Western-friendly Islam, preaching inter-religious dialogue, conversing with high-ranking World politicians and meeting Pope John Paul II. He can muster millions strong support group across Muslim world from Pakistan to Senegal. Even on headscarf issue - otherwise divisive in Turkey - he is a liberal. “The headscarf isn’t one of Islam’s main principles or conditions,” Gulen said on his website. “Islam does not allow anarchy and terror” is another of his statements.

But Gulen is viewed with suspicion and outright hatred by Turkey’s army and judiciary. A prosecutor charged him with “creating an illegal organisation aimed at changing the secular structure of the state and introducing a state system based on religious rules” under Turkey’s anti-terror laws. He denies all allegations.

It is no coincidence that Mr Gulen has received support in the United States, especially from Bush and Co. He is probably a chief mainstream Sunni Islamic cleric fully supported by USA and even by Israel. At the moment, Fethullah Gulen is the Muslim most supported by America – against aAl-Qa’eda, and thus is of great value to the United States. All this does not pacify Turkish secular nationalists, but upsets them very much. They see the wider American interests of a “dialogue” with Islamic world - of which Gulen is a leading agent - clashing with their strict interpretation of Ataturk legacy.

http://www.fethullahgulen.org/

Compare the two

In our discussions on the subject of governance I have touched upon the Iranian regime being the most obvious example of divinely guided theocratic regime and its adherence values of democracy (the rule of the people) of whatever definition. All parties - except a rabid anti-Iranian fringe - agree that Iranian civic society is more developed, more open and also less religious and more nationalistic than other neighbours; this is after all a country where even inward looking (if still millenarian in parts) Shia culture serves as a cornerstone of a national identity. All of it is quite a difference to Iran’s pro-western Arabic neighbours ( and we will not discuss reasons for which these countries have not developed such a system).

But what – given that the Western standards are not applicable to the Middle East - is a benchmark we can measure Iran’s performance after the Islamic Revolution. How can we judge whether it has delivered to peoples needs and is therefore in need of praise and not of scorn. It is difficult to judge. We can, however try to comparatively analyze two systems of governance operating in Iran and in Turkey - remnants of empires sharing a tumultuous recent past, and see whether these also had led to a better economic governance.

Both countries operate in such regimes where, in essence, democracy is only a controlled exercise. In Iran, no part of democracy can operate outside a theocratic frame of reference. The parliament and president exercise power in all other aspects, but their potential moves to liberalize regime or change the frame of reference will be cut short by self appointed bodies.

In Iran all the laws are divinely approved in the sense that they are vetted by a council of religious leaders, exercising ijtihad or Qu’ranic interpretation. (It may not appear to be so to the rabid Taleban supporter, but the law of the land proclaims that aspects of life in Iran are Sharia-controlled). Therefore, In the Western context Iran is not liberal and not a democracy.

In Turkey situation is – or at least was - broadly similar. It is a country where no part of people’s democracy is defined by religion. Religious institutions in Turkey (so called vakfs) are in the service and pay of the secular State. The Kemalist State in Turkey is represented by the Army (first and foremost), the judiciary, the police and other bureaucracy. These organs used to exercise control over Turkish democracy, and pronounced judgments which were most of the time against the will of the people. Therefore, in the Western context again, Turkey was liberal – as it allowed its people rights in their Western sense of the word – but not a democracy. Situation appears to have changed now, mainly because Turkey has moved towards joining Europe and introduced sweeping reforms, undermining the power of the secular state. Thus Kemalists, who started the process in 1960s, now have became most vocal opponents of Turkey’s EU drive. Both of these two systems in Turkey and in Iran had not been created by outside colonial European and American forces, were not shaped by outside pressure and therefore had a legitimacy that allowed them to perate in the country.

But what have two systems delivered towards the prosperity of two equally strongly religious nations? And on this account my opinion is unequivocal.

Iranian revolution introduced sweeping reforms in education and allowed many of the poor - including many women - to receive education unavailable to them during Shah’s rule. Result now that the “mullah” regime unwittingly created an upwardly mobile middle class, and many educated young looking for jobs. They however, have nowhere to go, for moribund state sector has not delivered on the most basic promise of the jobs. While Iranian industries are diversified and strong, they are match for Turkish ones and Iranian potential remains sadly unfulfilled, while its leaders engage in yet another futile duel with the West and Israel.

Of course many of these economic woes of Iran are due to sanctions and limitations put on Iranian businesses by Americans. However, most of the economic mismanagement is self-inflicted. Mullahs and ayatollahs participate in many businesses, their basij militiamen buddies monopolize industries and choke other competition with punitive taxes, engaging in spheres of life that go far beyond spiritual. Their economic doctrine is simple– the one that leads to oh so unislamic prosperity, sometimes ostentatious display of wealth. What is this behaviour but not a corruption of the mind? As Persian mystic Nizami said – “I will fly far from the palace of the ruler, for not tainted with money I will be”. Not so our religious ministers in Iran.


Turkey is sophisticated modern economy with a strong service and financial sector that is – in its make – essentially Western oriented. It is the only Middle Eastern country that does not rely on the natural resources for its economy and is still successful. The success of its diversified economy is due to the right fiscal and business friendly policies of the recent government – Islamic oriented one, but build on the background of many an institutions build by a state free from limits put on economy by an essentially unqualified class of leeches, sucking wealth off the nation (like in Iran).

There is – despite the hype – no restriction in place to pressure people’s beliefs, for there are more functioning mosques in Istanbul than in the whole of Europe. Most Turks are practicing and religious Muslims willingly living in secular state. The last atavism of the militant secular era – ban on hijabs in state schools - has been removed this year. Now it is all in the hands of the Army and the Turkish Nation together, to determine which path they are willing to plod in the future and if principles of Ataturk still hold.

As for Iran, if it wants to remain a stable country it should abandon the self-defeating rhetoric and start building a prosperous future for its people, the future they deserve and the future they elect governments to deliver.

And now they show some teeth! But can they bite?

Iraq's foreign minister has warned of serious consequences if Turkey launches a ground assault against Kurdish rebels based in northern Iraq. Hoshyar Zebari told the BBC that the current crisis was "dead serious" and accused Turkey of not seeking a peaceful solution. He said Turkey had shown no interest in Iraqi proposals to calm the situation. Mr Zebari said Turkey demanded that Iraq hand over senior members of the PKK sheltering in Iraq, a request he said was impossible to fulfil.

So Iraqis suddenly threaten to attack - sounds ridiculous, but somehow they have amassed enought guts to rebutt Turkey. Now, I must object to Mr Zebari - why is it right to invade Iraq the first time (I assume he believes it is, otherwise he would not be in the government) and not the second time? Terrorists and their camps have to be crushed even if they hide on the territory of the neighbouring country and they are not being handed over. Simple truth that has nothing to do with moral considerations. There is one empire that behaves a certain way, yet does not accept a copycat behaviour. Hey, US even pretends not to understand the reasons behind Turkish behaviour and rejects it as unreasonable.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7066441.stm

What Azerbaijan says

In my words I would have acknowledged the fact of massacres and ethnic cleansing of population that occured, and underscored importance of Turkish society itself to come up to the decision.. Unfortunetely, we are still suffering from "tit-for-tat" mentality. But the resolution is a good step, showing that Azerbaijan is willing to stand up for its friend through thick and thin.

STATEMENT OF THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN

The U.S. House of Representative's Foreign Affairs Committee adopted the draft Resolution 106, which characterizes the events of 1915 in Ottoman Empire related to relocation of the part of the Armenian population collaborating with invading forces, as "Genocide". The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan condemns this decision as wrong and biased and considers it harmful for the developments in the region and globally. Azerbaijan supports the Turkish call to examine the archival documents related to the World War I tragedies in this part of the world. It is crucial to learn all details before taking these serious steps. Azerbaijan suffered itself from notorious ethnic cleansing by Armenia, vivid example of which is genocide in Azerbaijani town of Khojaly, where hundreds of women, kids, and elderly people have been killed. Azerbaijan, which is also a victim of numerous terrorist acts and occupation of territories by Armenia, knows well how Armenian diaspora and Government hide their own misdoings through the aggressive propaganda. MFA of Azerbaijan strongly urges the U.S. House of Representatives to refrain from adopting the Resolution 106 in order to demonstrate that the United States Congress is impartial and not under the pressure of lobbies.

Genocidal Games

We fear change. Some changes are inevitable, however. But changes are brought about by outside brute force do not bode well for parties involved in part because of the difficult situations they cause. Some historical events, like 1915 massacres of the Armenians should be left to historians to unravel, countries to ponder and make sure the atrocities on this scale will not happen again. After all this is what goes on with great national debates on the massacres or mass murders from Tamerlane to Nanking.

However the issue of the Armenian “Genocide” have become a hot political topic of today one, where it is impossible to be calm-headed. It is clear the Armenian massacres are a hugely sensitive issue for Turkey. Debate has raged on this issue, often prompting diplomatic strains. It has been a factor complicating ties, for example, between Ankara and Paris, when laws penalizing “genocide” denial were passed.

Turkey is going through an identlty crisis, so much as the whole Europe, redefining its place amongst the great fault line of Civilizations In the current climate, rejected by the West, it exists moving in a convoluted path between nationalism, Islamism and radical Left.

However over the issues relating to the Western pressure or influence there is a broad consensus amongst the varying groups. It is not surprising that in the most secular of Muslim countries there exists a least favorable view of US (Only 13% of people identified US as a good influence on their lives). The forces, secular or religious are united in their opposition to what they see as American meddling in Iraqi Kurdistan and other perceived attacks on Turkish interests.

The forces of democratization and economic growth rocked the fragile balance of Kemalist state, so certain during the Cold War, and propelled different forces into the orbit of power, in education, office and even in the army. Kurdish issue was being worked on and there were some improvements on their lot. Some, mistakenly, seized a moment to push towards the fantom of European integration.

However all this changed, and in part because of “Genocide War” . People in the West, driven by whatever desire – altruistic or not -are clearly mistaken in their belief that they will be able to force Turkey to accept existence and its responsibility for the Armenian genocide. This surely will never happen under a malign external pressure, and only in a spirit of internal debate – in a society free of guilt and sure of himself this kind of discussions can take place. Another option – of conquest and subjugation of Turkey to force it to accept this event as Genocide is clearly not on the agenda. In this light the events to stir up the political pressure on Turkey is nothing but a short sighted game, even for Armenians wanting justice.

The fact that President George Bush publicly urged Congress not to proceed with the issue seems to have had little impact either at home or abroad. And that this would be a non-binding resolution, implying no practical shift in US policy, seems to make little difference to Turkish opinion either. It is clear that, if Armenians are not successful then steps will be taken into the future to politically isolate Turkey and, even attempt to impose sanctions on it. These should be and will be resisted.

A question of Hijab

News from Ankara! Cankaya Palace has a woman in headscarf, and this woman - wife of Turkey's new president, Abdullah Gul - will inhabit the spaces of this great temple of secular religion. How will she feel there - will she be threatened by the past, will she herself threaten it, will she lose sleep over it? Turkey is horrified, inspired and unprepared at the same time. It should have happened sooner or later and it did. People see things there - things to do with creeping Islamization and slow transformation of Turkey into a theocracy of the Saudi Arabian type. These fears of educated elites and urban capital are unfounded, knowing what degree of vigilance is already in existence within Turkish republic.

Turkey, for all its worth, is getting not only more comfortable with itself, and true to its identity. This identity is confused but as any confused identity, and this constantly evolving identity is a reason why this coutnry such an exciting place to be in. There is a tradition of a secular governance that had been established by Ataturk, but in fact - and this is why he was so successful in his entrerprise - dates to traditions of Ottoman administration. There are also lines that can not be crossed, and being in the faultline of many a traditions Turkey knows and feels all of them. Joining European Union, with laws and traditions of its own, that frankly are harmful to many of Turkish traditions, is a wrong way of crossing this faultine - becoming a successful liberal economy and a fair society where secular and religous coexist peacefully maybe a better one. Headscarf, then, will stop being a political symbol and will be what is meant to be - an item of clothing.

Getting in?

In more recent times, the European Union has been extending its influence to the east. It has accepted several new members that were previously behind the Iron Curtain, and has plans to accept several more in the medium-term. But none of the candidates is more controversial than Turkey – a large Muslim country with sizable and restive minorities and regime not fully commited to Western ideas of democratic state. A queue of countries waiting to get a cheap ticket prosperity has formed behind the main frontrunner, countries as diverse as Morocco, Georgia and Ukraine. They are impossible to absorb for the EU in its current state and will be for many times to come.

Besides factual impossibility of successful accession, which requires overcoming prejudices and fears from current EU member states, it is obvious to me that this step will be detrimental, if not perilous to the existence of Turkish Republic, or any other kind of secular Muslim country as we know of today. Several frequently overlooked factors contribute to this:

Application of more liberal laws creates a legal framework to challenge the state on the questions of ethnic or religious freedoms.
More individual freedoms allow exploration of one’s identity that undermines state-supplied propaganda in education.
Some Islamists are found to be ardent supporters of the EU accession (and not just in Turkey), in order to gain religious freedoms.

The law framework protecting rights an individual is very important in a liberal Western society – it is a cornerstone of legalizing one’s right to self-expression. A liberal penal code, will allow many to be free from persecution and demand their religious freedoms.

The self-awareness amongst great multitudes of population, but not moderated by education, leads them to quickly accept their new, sometimes imposed, identities. Thus more and more people will want to formalise their other identity in opposition than state-propogated Turkish one. Similarly many will realise their Islamic identity in opposition to nationalist one. Inevitable (in case of accession) recognition of Armenian genocide, withdrawal of Turks from Cyprus, and independence for Kurds will lead to an extreme nationalistic paranoia with unpredictable results.

The state machine understands that from allowing Islamic headgear in schools, allowing freedom of religious education and self-rule to non-Turkish peoples (which incidentally what most Turks are), there is a slippery slope to ruin of the nationalistic Turkish state as build by Ataturk. This road leads to Western-style liberal society and Islamist politicians are happy to speed up the journey – however before the Turkish juggernaut will get there, it will disintegrate into pieces.

An example of Iraq’s implosion is a gory one, and have put off indefinitely neo-liberal dreams of introducing democracy in Middle East. Instead they should have analyzed Islamic history more closely and understood how the concept of fitna or disorder – a result of multitude of clashing opinions – was a reason for downfall of many a civilization as their tipping point of dissent was reached. They also should have looked at importance of consensus and conformism as opposed to individual expression and rights, and most importantly should have understood an absence of indigenous intellectual and cultural basis for liberal society in the Middle East.

Turkey may be significantly different from the rest of the Middle East – actually it is already not a part of it; but equally it is not part of so called European space, simply because it is not part of Western Christianity. Turkey is a proud descendant of Byzantine and Ottoman society – her institutions and bureaucracy are Byzantine and its people are united by indoctrination. The implosion of the Turkish Republic means civil war, chaos and incredible bloodshed that may be worse than that of Iraq’s. This is a gloomy predicament , and Europeans and Americans, at least out of self-preservation should not encourage Turkey or other countries in similar position to self-destruct. There is always a sensible road in the middle – a tightrope act that Turkey does so well.