Even after 17 years of independence the bear on the horizon still looms large to some in the Caucausus and Central Asia. I wonder who will save us from capricious Mother Russia in her playground bully role which she assumes now more firmly. I never flinched in my conviction of importance of our European orientation for our long term socioeconomic gain. I am starting to have my doubts whether this orientation can be sustained.
Recently, Gazprom offered to buy natural gas from Azerbaijan at market prices. Azerbaijan must feel the same way Kazakhstan does about Russia in this respect, because the offer was refused. Events - and not least the rise in the price of oil making more possibilities economically feasible - have begun to accelerate the overtaking of Russia's near-monopoly on transport of Caspian Sea basin energy resources.
On the surface of it this may seem like we are still holding on against a short-term gain and desire Western transit. Laudable that we are still firm in desire to supply hungry Western markets with alternative sources of fuel. However the West is a weaker entity that it was even 10 years ago – European Union is a pathetic disappointment mired in constant petty infighting. In the issue of the Russian monopoly this unruly union of 27 countries is incapable of any series decision, to which impotence of Nabucco project certifies.
It is time for Europe – which has lost momentum in its drive eastward - to look once again at the stakes and realize what it is loosing. Reliable allies is one thing, but secure supply of energy which not all diverted to serve China’s needs is even more important. Central Asian resources will either be going to uncompromising Chinese or through a Russian monopoly. Countries like Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan will not wait for ever for opportunities that will never come.
The Bookroom
2 months ago
7 comments:
Europe as a pathetic disappointment, I can understand in general, but what exactly should it be doing in this matter? Must admit, I don't know the issues here.
It should formulate a coherent (sic) policy of securing badly needed supplies of energy from central asia. Russia will supply up to 80% of gas in Europe, and easing this just a little bit would not be a bad thing. Russia is known to use its gas as a weapon. Nabucco project of piping gas through Turkey will put an end to this and result in decreasing prices and competition. We will sell our gas directly to customer bypassing Russia, which can turn off the tap. But here we have anti-Russian Eastern Europe at one end and pro-Russian Germany at the other, all squabbling. Also China is building a huge pipeline to Turkmenistan and will probably complete it in 2 years. Europe will still continue bickering at that stage, until it would be too late. Those Central Asian countries will be forced to send gas to Russia or east to China. With economic dependence will come political one and so on. I can go on - biofuels, other energy uses, etc. No firm decisions on anything.
Yes, I have heard something of this. Why, do you think, is Germany so attached to Russia? I can't think of any reason why they should want to strengthen the Russian hand, which is not a gentle one. Why block competition? Who gains, aside from the Russians?
they had a good deal out of russia (unification) in the past and now they are biggest business investors into Russia from media to car-making, and so afraid to spoil relationships that they have constructed over the years. Germany is the biggest consumer of Russian Gas in europe. Eastern Europeans have more confrontational approach to Russia even though they consume Russian gas too. They think they stand too much to lose. Gazprom is breaking all EU anti-monopoly laws, but who cares, the laws are not written for Russians.
Actually today a friend gave me a very good challenge on this one - Why do we need Europe to get our gas if Europe itself does not care. Why not diversify to Russia, which offers a good price, anyway it seems that only entity that wants it is US state Department. What do we get in return - EU membership, Karabakh solution, better governance, open borders. Probably none of those. Only cash with no strings attached. But then how Europe is different from any other customer.
I had nothing to say, Europe is a lost case, where it comes to her own security and spreading her values beyond her borders. But Europe needs secure and reliable allies on borders!
Europe leaves all the hard stuff to the Americans all the time adopting a superior moral attitude. The moral high ground is great for the cameras, but not a good place to retreat to when things get rough. "Nature has made up her mind that what cannot defend itself shall not be defended."
Thanks for your explanations.
Read my last post - continuation of this point as I got fed up by another article
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